ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet resistance at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Spot Currency
The rupee weakened sharply yesterday amid concerns on steep oil supply cuts by Opec and other members . However, the meeting ended without a supply deal as Russia has not yet committed . The rupee is expected to open higher as a decline in oil price is positive for it • The US $ declined as risk sentiment improved amid ebbing risks of higher prices as of now . Investors will await US November employment details as well as Fed monetary policy meeting. Any dovish assessment shall see the dollar declining swiftly.
Benchmark yield
Government bonds extended gains as the RBI reduced its inflation target range while a more dovish than expected meeting supported domestic debt . Also, a decline in oil prices and a stable rupee is positive for domestic debt • US treasury yields declined as a slump in oil prices as well as a possibility of US - China trade resolution could create a hurdle for faster inflation growth.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar - rupee December contract on the NSE was at 70 . 95 in the previous session . December contract open interest increased 1 . 09 % in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet resistance at higher levels . Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
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