Macquarie sees 34% upside in ITC after calamity cess, stock gains over 1%

Macquarie said earnings growth recovery would lead to re-rating in ITC.


ITC shares gained 1.5 percent intraday on Monday after global investment firm Macquarie maintained outperform call on the stock with a price target at Rs 376, implying 34 percent potential upside.

Calamity cess of 1 percent limited to Kerala is significantly positive for the company because the street was expecting a Pan-India calamity cess at a higher rate, the research house said.

Thomas Isaac, the state's Finance Minister, after meeting a group of ministers in the national capital said Kerala would be permitted to have 1 percent cess on the value of goods and services across all or select items for two years.

If the additional cess is approved by the GST Council, Kerala would be the first state to levy a calamity cess.

The GST Council will take a decision on the matter in its 32nd meeting scheduled for January 10.

Macquarie said earnings growth recovery would lead to re-rating.

The cigarette-hotel-to-FMCG major had reported a 11.9 percent on year growth in second quarter (July-September) profit to Rs 2,954.67 crore, driven by cigarettes, FMCG and paper segments.

Cigarettes business, which contributed 45 percent to total revenue, has registered a 10.4 percent increase at Rs 5,026 crore with its EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) rising 8.7 percent, but margin declining 10 bps compared to same period last fiscal.

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