ICICI Direct's report on currency 


Debt market   
Government bonds ended lower, as caution ahead of the Federal  Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments weighed on demand 
  • The benchmark 6.97% 2026 bond yield rose to 6.45% from  6.42% the  previous day 
  • The yield on the US 10-year yield jumped to 2.43% on the      US Federal  Reserve chairperson’s comments about the US       economy being close to full employment.   

Forex (US$/INR) 
The rupee broke the winning streak on consolidation in domestic equities and higher dollar demand ahead of the US President’s inauguration speech that kept currency markets on the edge.  
  • The US$ recouped some of its losses against major currencies as rate hike prospects are back in focus. The US Federal Reserve Chair commented that the US economy is close to target employment, which cheered hawks supporting gains in the dollar. US$JPY gained almost 1.80% as the pair remained most sensitive to US rate hike prospects.   

US$/INR derivatives strategy   
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee January contract on the NSE ended at 68.16.The January contract open interest fell by 3.73% from the previous day  
  • February contract open interest rose 3.15% from  previous day 
  • We expect the US$ to gain supports at lower levels. Utilize downsides in the dollar to go long on the US$INR pair.

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