Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com recommends buying Tata Consultancy Services with stop loss at Rs 2245 and target of Rs 2350 and Balkrishna Industries with stop loss at Rs 735 and target of Rs 770

The market rallied sharply and posted the biggest single-day gain in last three months on August 26, driven by a rally across sectors except for metals. The measures to boost the economy and possible trade talks between US-China lifted sentiment.

The BSE Sensex surged 792.96 points or 2.16 percent to 37,494.12 while the Nifty50 rose 228.50 points or 2.11 percent to close above psychological 11,000 levels, at 11,057.90 and formed bearish candle on daily charts.

The market breadth remained in favour of bulls as more than two shares advanced for every share declining on the NSE. The Nifty Midcap index was up 1.6 percent and Smallcap index gained 2.3 percent.

According to the pivot charts, key support level is placed at 10,852.77, followed by 10,647.73. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out for are 11,166.57 and 11,275.33.

Nifty Bank closed at 27,951.35, up 992.70 points on August 26. The important pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 27,208.66, followed by 26,466.03. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 28,344.56 and 28,737.83.

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It has touched a 52-week low of Rs 49

Shares of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) declined 3 percent intraday on August 20 after the company closed its Phase-III process units of the refinery due to intensified monsoon.

It has touched its 52-week low of Rs 49.

The company in its press release said that the refinery has been affected by a minor landslide as an aftermath of the intensified monsoon in Dakshina Kannada District, hence as a precautionary measure, we have structured shutdown of the Phase-III process units of the refinery to access the condition of the facilities in the vicinity and for immediate stabilisation.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals were quoting at Rs 49.25, down Rs 1.50, or 2.96 percent on the BSE.

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Damani sold 40 lakh shares of Avenue at Rs 1,404.10 per share, as per bulk deals data available on the BSE on August 9

Avenue Supermarts, the operator of D-Mart retail chain August 9 said Founder Radhakishan Shivkishan Damani has completed the sale of 0.998 percent stake in the open market to adhere to minimum public shareholding norms.

The stock closed at Rs 1,452.85, up to Rs 22.55, or 1.58 percent on the BSE on Friday.

"Promoter, Radhakishan Shivkishan Damani, has completed the sale of 62.3 lakh equity shares of the company (constituting 0.998 percent of the paid-up equity share capital), on August 9, in compliance with the requirements of SEBI regulations in the process of achieving minimum public shareholding," the company said in its BSE filing.

As per the minimum public shareholding rule, every company has to have at least 25 percent public shareholding.

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The Sensex gained 463.69 points to end at 37,581.91, while Nifty ended at 11,109.7, up 112.35 points last week

Indian markets ended on a positive note in the volatile week ended August 9 amid June quarter earnings, RBI monetary policy, and fresh concerns over Sino-US trade worries.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced repo rates by another 35 basis points to 5.4 percent in the August Policy review while maintaining an accommodative stance. It now stands at the lowest level since April 2010.

The Sensex gained 463.69 points to end at 37,581.91, while Nifty ended at 11,109.7, up 112.35 points last week.

The S&P BSE Midcap index rose 1.26 percent, Smallcap Index added 1.10 percent and S&P BSE Largecap index was up 0.68 percent last week.

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"The round was led by General Atlantic and included participation from existing investors SAIF Partners and BEENEXT," the company said in a statement.                                                                                                                                                  

Realty portal NoBroker.com has raised USD 51 million from investors, including General Atlantic, for business expansion. This is the Series C Funding.

NoBroker has raised USD 71 million so far.

"The round was led by General Atlantic and included participation from existing investors SAIF Partners and BEENEXT," the company said in a statement.

NoBroker.com is a tech-based, brokerage-free real estate platform that makes real estate transactions seamless and efficient.

It also provides other services starting from house search to packers and movers, home loans, cleaning services etc.

More than 25 lakh properties are already registered on NoBroker and over 60 lakh individuals have used the portal's services.

"We plan to use this capital to further innovate and strengthen our ML/AI to make the transactions seamless and quicker," Akhil Gupta, CTO and co-founder of NoBroker.com, said.

NoBroker currently operates an end-to-end transaction model in five cities -- Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai and Gurgaon.

"This current funding round will support us in our plans to expand our operations. We will also invest in our home store and financial services products," Amit Kumar, CEO and co-founder of NoBroker.com, said.

Saurabh Garg, CBO and co-founder of the portal, said, "This funding comes at a time when we are already seeing huge traction.

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Second Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2019-20Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)Reserve Bank of India.

On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting today decided to:

reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points to 5.75 percent from 6.0 percent with immediate effect.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 5.50 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.0 per cent.

Global Economy

Global economic activity has been losing pace after a somewhat improved performance in Q1:2019, reflecting further slowdown in trade and manufacturing activity. Among advanced economies (AEs), economic activity in the US strengthened in Q1, supported by higher government

spending, increase in private investment and a lower trade deficit. However, factory activity and retail sales moderated in April. Economic activity in the Euro area has remained weak due to muted industrial activity and weak business confidence. Leading indicators point to a further slowdown in the

Euro area in Q2. In the UK, GDP growth for Q1 picked up on high retail sales and government expenditure. However, the outlook is clouded by uncertainty relating to Brexit. The Japanese economy accelerated in Q1 on net exports gains and increased public investment. In April, industrial production improved, while retail sales fell.

Economic activity has slowed in many emerging market economies (EMEs). In Q1:2019, the Chinese economy grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter, though slightly above consensus expectations. However, incoming data on industrial production and retail sales suggest that the growth momentum may weaken in Q2. The Russian economy, which had shown some signs of recovery in Q4:2018, weakened in Q1 on muted domestic activity and trade. Economic activity in South Africa contracted in Q1 pulled down mainly by a sharp decline in manufacturing activity. Brazil’s economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since 2016 and there are fears that it could return to recession.

# Crude oil prices remained volatile, reflecting evolving demand-supply conditions underpinned by the production stance of the OPEC plus, rising shale output, weakening global demand and geopolitical concerns. The strengthening of the US dollar had weakened gold prices; however, prices

picked up since the last week of May on escalating trade tensions, reviving its demand as a safe haven asset. Inflation remains below target in several economies, though it has shown an uptick since March.

Financial markets have been driven by uncertainties surrounding US-China trade negotiations and Brexit. In the US, the equity market has experienced some selling pressures since early May on escalation of trade tensions with China and recently, with Mexico. Equity markets in most EMEs have lost steam due to the waning risk appetite on rising geo-political uncertainties and weakening global trade prospects. Bond yields in the US picked up in April on better GDP data for Q1, but declined in May on subdued economic data and expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance. Bond yields in Germany slipped into negative territory on weak economic data; in Japan, they remained negative on indications of sustained accommodation. In many EMEs, bond yields have been falling with central banks adopting accommodative monetary policy to boost economic growth. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened on better than expected domestic economic data for Q1. Most EME currencies have depreciated against the US dollar.

Domestic Economy

Turning to the domestic economy, on May 31, 2019 the National Statistical Office (NSO) released quarterly estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Q4:2018-19 and provisional estimates of national income for 2018-19. GDP growth for 2018-19 has been estimated at 6.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), down by 20 basis points from the second advance estimates released on February 28, pulled down by a downward revision in private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and moderation in exports. Quarterly data show that domestic economic activity decelerated sharply to 5.8 per cent in Q4:2018-19 from 6.6 per cent in Q3 and 8.1 per cent in Q4:2017-18. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth declined sharply to 3.6 per cent, after remaining in double digits in the previous five quarters. Private consumption growth also moderated. The drag on aggregate demand from net exports increased in Q4 due to a sharper deceleration in exports relative to imports. However, the overall slowdown in growth was cushioned by a large increase in government final consumption expenditure (GFCE).

 On the supply side, agriculture and allied activities contracted, albeit marginally, in Q4:2018-19 due to a decline in rabi production. According to the third advance estimates, foodgrains production at 283.4 million tonnes for 2018-19 was lower by 0.6 per cent compared with the previous year mainly due to lower production of rabi rice, pulses and coarse cereals. However, there has been a catch-up in foodgrains production relative to earlier estimates. Foodgrains stocks at 72.6 million tonnes as on May 16, 2019 were 3.4 times the prescribed buffer norms. Growth in manufacturing

activity weakened sharply to 3.1 per cent from 6.4 per cent in the previous quarter. Service sector growth, however, accelerated, supported by financial, real estate and professional services, and public administration, defence and other services. In contrast, construction activity slowed down markedly.

Moving beyond Q4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that south-west monsoon rainfall (June to September) is likely to be normal at 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The current weak El Niño conditions over the Pacific are likely to continue during the

monsoon. However, currently prevailing neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may turn positive in the middle of the monsoon season and persist thereafter, which augur well for the rainfall outlook.

 Growth in eight core industries decelerated sharply in April, pulled down largely by coal, crude oil, fertilisers and cement. Credit flows from banks to large industries strengthened, though they remained muted for micro, small and medium industries. Based on early results of the Reserve Bank’s order books, inventory and capacity utilisation survey (OBICUS), capacity utilisation (CU) in the manufacturing sector improved to 77 per cent in Q4 from 75.9 per cent in Q3; seasonally adjusted CU, however, slipped marginally to 75.2 per cent in Q4 from 75.8 per cent in Q3. The business assessment index (BAI) of the industrial outlook survey (IOS) in Q1:2019-20 remained unchanged at its level in the previous quarter. Imports of capital goods – a key indicator of investment activity – remained anaemic in April. However, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged up to 52.7 in

May with strengthening of output, new orders and employment.

High frequency indicators suggest moderation in activity in the service sector. Sales of commercial vehicles, tractors, passenger cars, and three and two wheelers contracted in April. Railway freight traffic growth decelerated. Domestic air passenger traffic growth contracted in March, but turned around modestly in April. Two key indicators of construction activity, viz., cement production and steel consumption, slowed down in April. The PMI services index moderated to 50.2 in May on subdued growth of new businesses.

Retail inflation, measured by y-o-y change in CPI, remained unchanged in April, at its March level of 2.9 per cent, with higher inflation in food and fuel groups being offset by lower inflation in items excluding food and fuel.

The April food inflation print showed an increase to 1.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent in March. Within the food group, vegetables moved out of nine months of deflation. However, three sub-groups,

viz., fruits, pulses and sugar, remained in deflation in April, though the extent of deflation moderated. Among other food sub-groups, inflation in prices of milk, oils and fats, spices, non-alcoholic beverages and prepared meals moderated, while inflation in meat, fish and eggs prices ticked up.

Inflation in the fuel and light group rose to 2.6 per cent in April from the February trough of 1.2 per cent, pulled up by prices of liquified petroleum gas due to an increase in international prices. Inflation in subsidised kerosene also rose, reflecting the impact of the calibrated increase in its administered price. Electricity prices moved out of three months of deflation in April. Prices of rural fuel consumption items – firewood, chips and dung cake – moved into deflation.

CPI inflation excluding food and fuel fell sharply to 4.5 per cent in April from 5.1 per cent in March – the largest monthly decline since April 2017. The moderation in inflation was broad-based, with household goods and services, and personal care and effects sub-groups registering the largest fall in April; housing inflation was the lowest since June 2017, reflecting softening in house rents in urban areas. Inflation in clothing and footwear also touched its historical low in the new all-India CPI series. Inflation in education, health and transportation and communication moderated as well.

 Inflation expectations of households in the May 2019 round of Reserve Bank’s survey declined by 20 basis points for the three-month ahead horizon compared with the previous round, but remained unchanged for the one-year ahead horizon. However, manufacturing firms participating in the Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey expect input cost pressures to intensify on account of higher raw material costs and salaries in Q2. Input price pressures eased in both agricultural and industrial raw materials. Nominal growth in rural wages and in organised sector staff costs remained muted.

Liquidity in the system turned into an average daily surplus of Rs 66,000 crore (Rs 660 billion) in early June after remaining in deficit during April and most of May due to restrained government spending. The Reserve Bank injected liquidity of ₹70,000 crore (₹700 billion) in April and Rs 33,400 crore (Rs 334 billion) in May on a daily net average basis under the LAF. It conducted two OMO purchase auctions in May amounting to Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion) and a US dollar buy/sell swap auction of US$ 5 billion (Rs 34,874 crore) for a tenor of 3 years in April to inject durable liquidity into the system. The weighted average call money rate (WACR) – the operating target of monetary policy – remained broadly aligned with the policy repo rate: it traded above the policy repo rate (on an

average) by 6 bps in April, but below the policy repo rate by 6 bps in May. The Reserve Bank has announced that it would conduct an OMO purchase auction of Rs 15,000 crore (Rs 150 billion) on June 13, 2019.

Transmission of the cumulative reduction of 50 bps in the policy repo rate in February and April 2019 was 21 bps to the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans. However, the WALR on outstanding rupee loans increased by 4 bps as the past loans continue to be priced at high rates. Interest rates on longer tenor money market instruments remained broadly aligned with the overnight WACR, reflecting near full transmission of the reduction in policy rate.

Exports were unable to sustain the growth of 11.8 per cent observed in March 2019; they grew by 0.6 per cent in April 2019 dragged down by engineering goods, gems and jewellery, and leather products. Imports grew at a somewhat accelerated pace in April 2019 relative to the preceding month, driven by imports of petroleum (crude and products), gold and machinery. This led to a widening of the trade deficit, both sequentially and on a y-o-y basis. Provisional data suggest that net services exports in Q4:2018-19 were broadly comparable to their level a year ago which bode well for the current account balance. On the financing side, net foreign direct investment flows were stronger in Q4:2018-19 than a year ago. After a sharp recovery in March 2019, net foreign portfolio inflows were

relatively modest at US$ 2.3 billion in 2019-20 in April-May. While the equity segment received net inflows during this period, the debt segment witnessed net outflows. India’s foreign exchange reserves were at US$ 421.9 billion on May 31, 2019.

In the bi-monthly monetary policy resolution of April 2019, CPI inflation was projected at 2.4 per cent for Q4:2018-19, 2.9-3.0 per cent for H1:2019-20 and 3.5-3.8 per cent for H2:2019-20, with risks broadly balanced. The headline inflation outcome in Q4 at 2.5 per cent was largely in alignment

with the April policy projections.

The baseline inflation trajectory for 2019-20 is shaped by several factors. First, the summer pick-up in vegetable prices has been sharper than expected, though this may be accompanied by a correspondingly larger reversal during autumn and winter. More recent information also suggests a broad-based pick-up in prices in several food items. This has imparted an upward bias to the nearterm trajectory of food inflation. Second, a significant weakening of domestic and external demand conditions appear to have led to a sharp broad-based decline of 60 bps in inflation excluding food and fuel in April; this has imparted a downward bias to the inflation trajectory for the rest of the year. Third, crude prices have continued to be volatile. However, its impact on CPI inflation has been muted so far due to incomplete pass-through. Fourth, near-term inflation expectations of households have continued to moderate. Taking into consideration these factors, the impact of recent policy rate cuts and expectations of a normal monsoon in 2019, the path of CPI inflation is revised to 3.0-3.1 per cent for H1:2019-20 and to 3.4-3.7 per cent for H2:2019-20, with risks broadly balanced (Chart 1).

# Risks around the baseline inflation trajectory emanate from uncertainties relating to the monsoon, unseasonal spikes in vegetable prices, international fuel prices and their pass-through to domestic prices, geo-political tensions, financial market volatility and the fiscal scenario.

 In the April policy, GDP growth for 2019-20 was projected at 7.2 per cent – in the range of 6.8-7.1 per cent for H1 and 7.3-7.4 per cent for H2 – with risks evenly balanced. Data for Q4:2018-19 indicate that domestic investment activity has weakened and overall demand has been weighed down partly by slowing exports. Weak global demand due to escalation in trade wars may further impact India’s exports and investment activity. Further, private consumption, especially in rural areas, has weakened in recent months. However, on the positive side, political stability, high capacity utilisation, the uptick in business expectations in Q2, buoyant stock market conditions and higher financial flows to the commercial sector augur well for investment activity. Taking into consideration the above factors and the impact of recent policy rate cuts, GDP growth for 2019-20 is revised downwards from 7.2 per cent in the April policy to 7.0 per cent – in the range of 6.4-6.7 per cent for H1:2019-20 and 7.2-7.5 per cent for H2 – with risks evenly balanced.

The MPC notes that growth impulses have weakened significantly as reflected in a further widening of the output gap compared to the April 2019 policy. A sharp slowdown in investment activity along with a continuing moderation in private consumption growth is a matter of concern. The headline inflation trajectory remains below the target mandated to the MPC even after taking into account the expected transmission of the past two policy rate cuts. Hence, there is scope for the MPC to accommodate growth concerns by supporting efforts to boost aggregate demand, and in particular, reinvigorate private investment activity, while remaining consistent with its flexible inflation targeting mandate.

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The breadth of the market favoured advances, with 964 stocks advancing, 626 declining and 460 remaining unchanged. On BSE, 1128 stocks advanced, 678 declined and 86 remained unchanged.

The Indian stock market continues to remain volatile this Wednesday morning with the Nifty50 down 75 points and is trading at 10,932 while the Sensex is trading lower by 171 points at 36,355.

At 9:40 hrs, the Nifty auto index is down close to 2 percent dragged by Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor, Tata Motors and Apollo Tyres.

Infra stocks are also weak, the top losers being Bharti Infratel, Bharti Airtel, Interglobe Aviation, IRB Infra, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Communications and Tata Communications.

From the private banking space YES Bank jumped 7 percent while on the other hand, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank traded lower.

From the BSE smallcap space, IL&FS Engineering along with IL&FS Transport zoomed close to 20 percent followed by Emmbi Industries, Trigyn Technologies and Infibeam.

The top NSE gainers include names like YES Bank, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Cipla and GAIL India.

The top NSE losers are Bharti Infratel, Eicher Motors, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries and Maruti Suzuki.

The most active stocks are YES Bank, Dewan Housing Finance, Bandhan Bank, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank.

Tech Mahindra and Monnet Ispat are few of the stocks which hit new 52-week high this Wednesday morning.

On the other hand, 142 stocks have hit new 52-week low including names like 8K Miles Software, Bombay Dyeing, Eicher Motors, Future Retail, Indiabulls Real Estate, Gammon Infra, Bharti Infratel and Vakrangee among others.

The breadth of the market favoured advances, with 964 stocks advancing, 626 declining and 460 remaining unchanged. On BSE, 1128 stocks advanced, 678 declined and 86 remained unchanged.

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With nearly 40 years of experience at looking at Indian markets Deepak Mohoni talks about market evolution and interpretation of data.

There are few individuals in Indian markets with the experience and expertise of Deepak Mohoni. A chemical engineer from IIT Kanpur followed by post-graduation from IIM Calcutta, Mohoni has made many contributions to the Indian markets.

Having coined the word Sensex — the widely followed index representing BSE — Mohoni is in a way responsible for popularising technical analysis charts in India.

Though not a huge fan of technical analysis himself, Mohoni likes to work with raw data and is coming out with a new package that will help in interpreting market information – both technical and fundamental in a more meaningful way.

In an interview with Moneycontrol, Deepak Mohoni discusses the way he looks at the information the market throws up and a simple but logical way of picking up good long-term stocks.

Q: Can you tell us the story behind you coining the word Sensex along with your background

A: I have an engineering background, a chemical engineer from IIT Kanpur and a post-graduation management degree from IIM Calcutta. I worked for some time in India and went abroad for 7-8 years. My field of work was software, those were early days for the software industry. It was much earlier than Infosys was formed, though TCS was around for some time.

For markets too, it was early days. There were few sources of information then. There were some weekly papers like Money, Rupee, and Profit.

A person from one of the papers approached me and asked if I could write for them on something that could give them charts for the paper. I did a small project for him and that is where I got access to the data – both fundamental and technical of the stock market.

Thereafter, I kept the database going. Manual entry was the only way to maintain data but later the stock exchanges started giving data on a floppy disk.

I used the Indian market data to work on an international charting software called Metastock which was made public.

Since I had worked on the initial project for publishers to use charts, I approached a business magazine called Business World to see if they would be interested. The editor of the magazine in those days, R Jagannathan, asked me to consider writing a column on technical analysis for the magazine.

This series of write-ups on technical analysis, I believe was one of the first articles on the subject in India. Later, I started writing for other popular publications.

In those days, while talking about the market sentiment people used to talk about the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, which was quite a mouthful. As other stock exchanges across the world had a smaller name to represent their index I decided to coin one.

I asked Jaggi if I can use the word Sensex to represent the market index. He not only gave the go-ahead but also said that he would ask other reporters in the magazine who write on markets to use the word. I on my part also asked other journalists I knew to promote the word. That is how the word Sensex got popular. I, however, have a court case going on with the BSE on use of the trademark.

Q: Since you have written on technical analysis, do you also trade using it?

A: Not really. My focus has always been on the software side of the business, even the newsletter that I was writing depended very much on automated processes. I have a database package and I am working on a new package that will be released shortly.

But having said that I am more of an investor though I also trade occasionally, especially when markets are really down as they were in 2008. During this time the investment portfolio would not give returns so I trade in such markets off and on. I depend on my investments for giving me equity market returns. You need market returns to beat inflation. By putting your money in the fixed deposit you are not getting much of a return after taking into account inflation.

Market themselves keep up with inflation and if your stock picks are reasonably ok your portfolio will do better than inflation. I was able to get this return from my investment portfolio and I don’t touch it very much.

Only occasionally, I review the portfolio and if a stock is doing poorly for 5-6 months as compared to others, I would look to reduce exposure. I would also look at the ones that have shot up and are looking overpriced.

As for the recommendation part especially on the televisions, before 2007 the interviews were mostly on the broader analysis of the market and the economy rather than on stock tips. The 2007 boom gave rise to the business of giving trading tips. I generally do not like giving tips, I am reluctant in giving them. There are more parameters involved in a trade than just acting on a tip. One should look at their position size, what they want to do with the trade ones they are in the trade.

Q: How do you build your investment portfolio?

A: There are a number of ways to look at a stock, but there is one which few people use, though it is picking up. It's using the Sharpe Ratio for individual stocks. Now Sharpe Ratio is generally used in the mutual fund's industry but a lot of people are now finding it useful and have started applying on individual stocks.

Sharpe Ratio offers what a long-term investor is looking for. It is basically consistent returns that the stock has given in the past divided by the standard deviation.

A long-term investor looks for a trending stock where the chart is moving steadily from the lower left side of the screen to the higher right side. Now two charts may be making a similar pattern but their returns may differ, which is not visible on the chart. One chart may give a return of 20 percent while the other may have given just 5 percent. On the chart, you cannot directly see the returns and would be missing the story. You as an investor would be keen on looking at a stock that is giving higher returns consistently.

The key is to buy such a stock when it falls but at the same time, you do not want the stock to fall too much. You are essentially looking at a stock that moves in a persistent way and would like to avoid stocks that have sharp spikes down. This is exactly what the Sharpe Ratio captures.

Sudden spikes would mean a higher standard deviation. Two stocks with similar returns would have different Sharpe Ratio if the standard deviation differs. The one with a lower standard deviation, which is in the denominator, would give a higher Sharpe Ratio and would be a more favourable investment.

Q: Can you shed some light on the new package you are working on. Is it to do with some form of technical analysis?

A: No, the new package has more to do with data science than technical analysis. We are already present in the business of providing stock market data, however, the new project that we are working on is going to provide tools at the hand of people rather than tips.

They will be able to use a lot of parameters to trade or invest and not get stuck with 2-3 indicators. They will have more information in their hand to interpret the market.

I am comfortable working with data and am not a huge fan of technical analysis, though there are a few good things about technical analysis. In its most basic form, the technical analysis gives you an idea of where the market is going and one should avoid going against the direction of the market.

The other thing that technical analysis is good at is during a trade setup. After you have taken a position it gives you an idea of the points of where you want to exit. You can keep your stop losses at these points and if the trade is in your favour you can keep a trailing stop loss.

But in my view, technical indicators don’t really work. People delude themselves in thinking that it does base on some degree of success that they encounter.

At the end of the day, what are charts but a visual display of numbers/data. In fact, numbers are more powerful and you can see things in numbers that you cannot see in a chart. You have more flexibility in working with numbers than you have in working with charts.

There are more statistical tools that you can use with numbers, financial market theories can be tested on the numbers. Working with data is more scientific rather than working with technical analysis which is unscientific.

What we are working on is trying to produce more information from the raw data. It is up to the creativity of the people to profit from it. We will be giving more data points to work on.

There is something that I tweet every day, it combines the total value of trades on the BSE and NSE and then compares it with the 15 sessions average volume. Now volume per se on its own is not of much help, but here if there is a sharp rise in volume over a longer period it signifies unusual interest. There is something happening in the stock which would require further investigation by both the trader and investor.

The new package will have a combination of price and fundamental data and would be handy. We hope to come out with the package in the next few months.

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The rupee depreciation year-to-date and in last one month was so sharp that net importers of commodities are likely to hit badly as they have to shell out more money to buy their products.

Rupee depreciation is likely to hit badly net importers of commodities as they have pay more to buy raw material or finished products. On the contrary, exporters will definitely be major beneficiaries.

More the exposure to imports, severe the impact of rupee fall. One of the sectors that may be impacted is chemicals and agrochemicals, but IIFL feels the impact will not be same for all. While exporters can pass on to customers the cost advantage of rupee fall, in case of importers which can't pass on import cost, the pressure can likely go beyond FY19.

The research house said FY19 earnings are likely to be clouded by hedging losses and debt revaluation, so it focuses on earnings for FY20, by when the recurring impact on earnings should become more visible.

According to the brokerage, Deepak Nitrite (DNL), UPL and Atul are likely to be among the leading beneficiaries. It expects Aarti, SRF, Navin Fluorine, Rallis and Tata Chemicals to record more modest benefits while Bayer, Coromandel and GSFC – all net importers – may face some near-term challenges.

It feels INR depreciation will impact not only: 1) ‘core’ trade earnings (i.e., those arising from exports and imports), but also lead to 2) hedging gains/losses, 3) revaluation of foreign currency borrowings, and 4) revaluation of monetary items on the balance sheet.

However, the last three items (Bayer, Coromandel and GSFC) will have a one-time impact on reported financials (in FY19), whereas only the core earnings impact will sustain through FY20 and beyond, IIFL said.

According to the research firm, the biggest beneficiary could be Deepak Nitrite, mainly owing to its new phenol project, which will have USD-linked spreads.

UPL will likely derive more than 85 percent of its revenues from outside India by FY20, post the Arysta acquisition, and hence could also see substantial benefit, it said, adding Atul has demonstrated significant leverage to the INR in the past.

It believes Navin Fluorine and SRF should also benefit more modestly. Tata Chemicals' overseas soda ash business gives it some advantage, while Rallis is a marginal net exporter while PI Industries’ custom synthesis typically passes on INR movements to customers, and so should remain relatively unaffected, it said.

For net importers, price hikes may be challenging near-term due to strained farmer finances, IIFL feels.

But IIFL is not negative on all three stocks though these companies are net importer and the rupee will have major impact on their earnings.

Among three, it has Reduce rating on Bayer Cropscience only (which fell 2 percent YTD) and expects stock to give negative return over a period of one year but in case of Coromandel Interational (which fell 31 percent YTD) and GSFC (down 40 percent YTD) it has Add and Buy rating with expectations of 35 percent and 44 percent return, respectively.

Here is what IIFL says about these three stocks:

Bayer CropScience

Bayer is a net importer, but typically passes on input cost increases to farmers. Therefore, under normal conditions, INR depreciation should not impact the company’s margins. However, agrochemical prices have already risen sharply in 2018, and farmers may balk at further price increases. This is a key challenge for Bayer.

Coromandel International

Like most Indian fertiliser companies, Coromandel is a net importer: it imports most of its key raw materials – ammonia, phosphoric acid, and potash – that are used for making fertilizers. Besides, in its crop protection business too, it imports certain chemical intermediates from China.

A weaker INR has made these inputs more expensive for Coromandel. While the company typically passes on these input cost increases to farmers, it has already taken (along with the rest of the fertiliser industry) substantial price hikes in 2018. DAP prices are up around 30 percent at the industry level so far this year, due to both INR depreciation and increases in prices of all inputs.

In such an environment, it remains to be seen whether farmers will be ready to accept further price increases or fertilizer demand will witness any pressure.

GSFC

Like Coromandel, GSFC too is a net importer, mainly due its imports of fertilizer inputs. It therefore faces similar pressures: of raising prices of its fertilizer products in an environment where farmer demand may already be under pressure.

In its chemical business, GSFC sells primarily in India, but its product prices are pegged to international prices. Consequently, the company may benefit from INR weakness, in that its spreads in INR terms could widen.

However, this benefit could be offset by any softness in fertilizer-segment margins for aforementioned reasons and, in addition, chemical-segment margins are highly volatile. Hence, quantifying the currency impact would add little value.

In case of other stocks, IIFL expects Aarti Industries, Navin Fluorine, Tata Chemicals, UPL, Rallis India and SRF to give 12-30 percent return.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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The government raised basic customs duties across air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines (<10kgs) and compressors for aircon and refrigerators.

The Indian government on Wednesday hiked import duty on high-end consumer items including washing machines, air conditioner, footwear, diamonds, jet fuel as a part stabalise currency and to reduce current account deficit (CAD).

The government has chosen consumer goods over capital ones, banking on the robust and resilient consumption growth over the past year. Given these are a small share of overall imports, the measures would help reduce imports by only USD 500 million (0.1% of total imports), which is quite small,” Nomura said in a report.

“In our view, the currency depreciation thus far is likely to play a bigger role in reducing the imports as compared to the import duty hikes. Nevertheless, it adds to the incremental steps that the government has been taking to trim the current account deficit and improve the scope of its funding,” it said.

The total value of imports of these 19 items in the year 2017-18 was about Rs 86,000 crore, as per the finance ministry release.

The increase in basic customs duty from 10% to 20% is applicable for air conditioners, refrigerators and Washing Machines (<10kgs) while duties on compressors have been raised from 7.5% to 10%.

Here is a list of 16 stocks which are getting impacted by import duty hike:

Blue Star, Voltas:

The increase in customs duty of 10 percent includes the outdoor, indoor and completely built units which would see an increase along with an increase in duties for compressors by 2.5 percent. In case of compressors, 70-75 percent of the requirement is met by imports from China where price hikes would be needed by manufacturers to pass on the increase.

“In the case of indoor units, Indian manufacturers like Voltas, Blue Star, Lloyd depend primarily on imports while MNC players like Daikin, Hitachi make/source it in India; higher duties will give an advantage to the MNC players till the time the Indian players too start sourcing the same domestically,” Motilal Oswal said in a note.

Goldman Sachs in a note said that hike in customs duty is negative for Voltas. Morgan Stanley suggests that a hike in customs duty is likely to hurt earnings in H2FY19.

Whirpool, Havells India:

Within refrigerators, Whirlpool has manufacturing facilities in India and only imports the 400litre range which would be the only range to be impacted from the duty hikes.

“VoltBek Appliances (JV of Voltas and Arcelik) is importing its entire range of refrigerators (direct cool and frost-free) till its plant starts in mid CY19 at Gujarat – our channel checks suggest that most of the sourcing would be done from Thailand which has a free trade agreement with India and would remain unaffected by the increase in duties on refrigerators,” said a Motilal Oswal note.

CLSA in a note said that Voltas’s JV with Arcelik would be hurt as appliances are 100% imported. Voltas Beko’s domestic factory will likely take a year to start. Commenting on Havells India, it said that the company currently imports 70 percent of Lloyds requirement but has the option to shift to domestic manufacturing.

Morgan Stanley maintains an equal-weight rating on Havells India with a target price of Rs 712. The global investment bank said that commissioning of AC plant is likely by Mar-19 which will moderate the impact in FY20.

MRF, Apollo Tyres, CEAT, JK Tyres:

The government has hiked the import duty on car radial tyres from 10-15 percent. The imports account for 13 percent of the domestic FY18 sales volumes. “This is sentimentally positive for tyre companies like MRF, Apollo Tyres, CEAT, JK Tyres,” said a Sharekhan report.

IOC, BPCL, HPCL, Jet Airways & SpiceJet:

OMC stocks like IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL are in focus after the Indian government imposed 5 percent import duty on ATF from nil currently. It will be positive for OMCs as it could help them increase marketing margins on ATF but could weigh on aviation stocks like Jet Airways and SpiceJet.

Bata India; Relaxo Footwear:

The custom duty on footwears increased to 25 percent from 20 percent earlier. “It is positive for Footwear companies such as Bata India and Relaxo Footwear,” said the Sharekhan report.

Titan Company:

There is no change in import duty on gold which is positive as this would lift the overhang on the stock in the near term. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on Titan Company with a target price of Rs 1250. Hike in rate or jewellery pieces is marginally positive as it reduces competitiveness.Disclaimer: The above report is compiled from information available on public platforms. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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The government has kept rate unchanged on import of gold.

Shares of Titan Company rose nearly 3 percent in the early trade on Thursday as government has not hiked the import duty on gold.

The government has hiked import duty on high-end consumer items including washing machines, air conditioner, footwear, diamonds, jet fuel, car tyres, kitchen and tableware, some plastic goods, as well as suitcases as a part of its plan to get foreign funds flowing back to India and to reduce current account deficit (CAD) as it seeks to stabilise the domestic currency.

Meanwhile, the government has kept rate unchanged on import of gold.

On Wednesday, the share price ended 2 percent higher after global investment firm Morgan Stanley raised target price on the stock on strong growth expectations in festive season.

The global research firm has maintained its Overweight call on the stock and raised target price to Rs 1,250 from Rs 1,120 earlier.

At 09:49 hrs Titan Company was quoting at Rs 837.65, up Rs 25.45, or 3.13 percent on the BSE.

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Vineeta Sharma of Narnolia Financial Advisors said sanction on Iran and strong seasonal demand in October will too impact crude prices in the near term.

For last few days Brent is trading firmly above $80 per barrel. India being a large importer of crude, our macroeconomic parameters depends a lot on how crude is behaving. In June this year when full OPEC members meeting had taken place in Vienna there was a sense that OPEC led by Saudi Arabia is looking forward to Brent in the range of $65 per barrel and not $75 per barrel.

While the Vienna meeting was happening and crude had raised, Saudi minister had warned traders saying the resolve of the OPEC members to keep crude prices benign should not be undermined by the traders. But a lot has changed over the last three months.

During last weekend meeting in Algiers, OPEC member along with Russia had reiterated that they would be raising the production to compensate for the supply loss by any of the OPEC members. They still remain committed to original 1.8 mbpd-2 mbpd (million barrels per day) cut envisaged in December 2016.

Saudi Arabia had insisted on having the capacity of 1.5 mbpd to meet the shortages in the global oil market. Russia too expressed intentions for a gradual rise in production to meet the shortages, if any.

But what has changed is the firmness on price- Saudi’s Falih has said that "I do not influence prices" in response to Trump’s calls for increasing production to cool off the prices. It suggests that the oil-producing countries are fine with the current crude at $80 a barrel.

If the above suggestion is true then $80 a barrel should be new normal for global oil markets at least till full OPEC member meeting in December. Sanction on Iran and strong seasonal demand in October will too impact crude prices in the near term.Disclaimer: The author is Head of Research of Narnolia Financial Advisors. The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.05 percent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.45 percent.

Global equities ran out of steam and US bond yields fell after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected, sticking to its script of gradual policy tightening with forecasts of five more rate hikes by 2020.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.05 percent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.45 percent.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4 percent and the S&P 500 lost 0.33 percent. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.21 percent.

The 10-year US Treasuries yield fell more than 5 basis points to 3.048 percent.

The Fed bumped up its policy target by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.00-2.25 percent and indicated that it foresees another rate rise in December, three more next year, and one in 2020.

While that was little changed from its previous projections in June, it would put the benchmark overnight lending rate at 3.4 percent, roughly half a percentage point above the Fed's estimated "neutral" rate of interest, by 2020.

"The Fed seems to have grown more convinced of the need to keep raising rates beyond the neutral levels. I cannot see reasons to slow down raising rates as long as the jobless rate keeps falling," said Tomoaki Shishido, fixed income strategist at Nomura Securities.

But some investors see a limited need for the Fed to keep raising rates as inflation has shown no sign of picking up so far, despite continued economic growth and a tight labour market.

The US unemployment rate stood near its lowest level since 2001.

"Three hikes next year is absurd," said Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa. "With an additional rate hike likely in 2018 and one in March next year, we will reach what many Fed governors feel is a neutral rate level. With the low odds of a spike in inflation, it makes sense that the Fed would pause after the March rate hike and allow the markets to adjust to its new policy," he said.

Some investors also say trade disputes between the Trump administration and several trading partners are adding more uncertainty to the economic outlook.

US tariffs and retaliatory levies by others could slow the global economic growth, but broad-based tariffs could also stoke inflation by raising the prices of imported goods.

In the currency market, the dollar was mixed after the Fed's decision.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 94.266, having gained 0.13 percent on Wednesday. It hovered above Friday's 2 1/2-month low of 93.808.

The euro traded at $1.1749, off three-month high of $1.18155 touched on Monday.

The yen hit a 10-week low of 113.145 to the dollar in a choppy trade after the Fed's policy announcement but it bounced back to 112.75.

Emerging market currencies, which had been pressured by concerns higher US yields will encourage investors to move funds out of emerging markets to the United States, were firmer.

MSCI emerging market currency index rose 0.2 percent on Wednesday. The gains means its performance so far this month is up 0.25 percent, raising hopes it could post its first monthly rise in six months.

Oil prices gained on an impending fall in Iranian exports.

Global benchmark Brent rose 0.9 percent to $82.10 per barrel, near the four-year high of $82.55 set on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1.2 percent to $72.45 a barrel.

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